By the middle of September, most soybean fields in Arkansas — and there are many of them — had been harvested or were awaiting harvest. Arkansas is one of nine states where forecasted yields promise record highs.
However, there is another trade war to consider. U.S. soybean exports to China have all but dried up after President Donald Trump instituted tariffs on China, typically the biggest importer of American soybeans. In 2024, the U.S. exported 985 million bushels to China, but this year, the U.S. has shipped just 218 million bushels and virtually none since June.
“Even though China still bought more than half of U.S. soybean exports in 2024, trade tensions have flared again,” said Belle Osvath, creator of The Simple Money Project, “and this fall, China booked no U.S. soybean purchases for the critical fourth quarter.”
Those Chinese soybean orders instead have been going to Brazil, which through August had set a record for shipments to China. The Trump-Chinese trade tit for tat led to U.S. soybean prices continuing to fall, and with Arkansas a top-10 soybean producer, many Natural State farmers are directly impacted. Trade wars aside, soybean prices have fallen about 40 percent since 2022, while overhead costs such as fuel and fertilizer prices have gone up, putting the squeeze on farmers.
“It makes it hard for us to sell our products,” Monroe County farmer Bo Mason told KATV. “Once you start to plan, you have to finish out the year with that plan.”
The University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture released its annual “State of the Arkansas Crop Economy” in early October, and researchers found that Arkansas row-crop farmers will find themselves in the red for this year. The report indicated that soybean farmers can expect to lose $85.02 per acre.
Deacue Fields, vice president of agriculture for the UA system, recently told the UA board that the agricultural economy right now is in one of the worst states he has seen.
Meanwhile, state officials hope the loss of China as a major buyer of Arkansas soybeans could be made up by the state’s trade deal with Taiwan, announced by Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders in mid-September.
The Taiwan Vegetable Oil Manufacturers Association agreed to purchase at least 6.5 metric tons of soybeans with an estimated value of at least $3.44 billion, while the Taiwan Feed Industry Association said it will purchase 7.5 million metric tons of corn and 1 million metric tons of corn products, estimated value $2.12 billion.
On Sept. 25, Trump announced that his administration would take money made from the tariffs and provide relief for American farmers, though he did not initially release details.
“We’re going to give it to the farmers who are going to be hurt for a little bit until the tariffs kick in to their benefit,” he said.
Grown in 41 of Arkansas’ 75 counties on roughly 3.3 million acres, soybeans are one of the state’s top row crops — No. 2 behind rice — and one of its top three crop commodities. Arkansas’ soybean yield generates about $1.7 billion annually and average yields of 40 bushels per acre, according to the UADA.
Having already lost thousands of farmland acres to flooding earlier this year, the Delta rode out a moderate drought in August without much impact. One UA researcher said soybean farmers should also be concerned about the diminishing effect of herbicides as weed control due to weed resistance.
Jeremy Ross, professor and soybean extension agronomist at the UA Cooperative Extension Service, told the Soybean Research & Information Network some weeds are learning to resist multiple herbicides, a development with possible long-term consequences.
Jeremy Ross,
UA Cooperative
Extension Service
“We need research to identify long-term weed control options when chemicals don’t work well,” he said. “We also need to pay attention to the economic profitability of soybeans for our farmers as they compete with other global regions for market share and adapt to address consumer concerns.”
The soybean market indeed is changing, trade wars aside. Human consumption of soybeans and soybean products is on the rise, but most Arkansas soybeans are still used as a supplement in livestock feed.
The domestic market for soybeans as a component in biodiesel is growing, as well. The state ranks 10th nationally in soybean production at more than 150 million bushels each year and fourth nationally in soybean usage. Roughly 35 percent of the annual U.S. soybean harvest is exported.
Arkansas joins Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri and Wisconsin as the only states where forecasted yields promise record highs. Though national soybean harvest for 2025 was forecast at 80.3 million acres, down 7 percent from last year, yields were up 2.8 bushels per acre to 53.5, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.
Ross noted three ways Arkansas soybean farmers could improve their management practices for 2026. First, they should use narrow row spacing when planting soybeans.
“We have a lot of data showing that narrow rows increase yield,” he said.
Second, they should prioritize irrigation efficiency.
“About 85 percent of Arkansas soybeans grow under irrigation,” he said. “Using soil moisture sensors and programs that improve the efficiency of furrow irrigation can minimize over- or underirrigating. Improving water use efficiency supports soybean profitability.”
And third — remember the data.
“Spend the time needed to pull soil samples and track data,” he said. “Building a long field history allows farmers to see nutrient trends over time to better maintain soil
fertility.”
According to the UADA Arkansas Soybean Production Handbook, soybeans were first domesticated in the Yellow River and/or Yangtze River valleys in central and southern China between 3,000 and 5,000 years ago. Many soybean references can be found in early Chinese literature.
Soybeans, grown strictly for food in China, were introduced to the U.S. in the late 18th century or early 19th century, agriculture historians believe. The crop’s early growth in North America was due to its use in foraging. It is now the second-largest row crop in the U.S. based on acreage. The soybean was introduced to Arkansas in 1925 and became popular domestically in the 1940s.
READ ALSO: Lexicon’s Schueck Receives Rotary Club’s Leader Award
