On the day before Election Day, Morning Consult has released its final polls, showing its estimates for the 2020 presidential race, predicting a Democratic Party victory.
The poll shows Democratic Party presidential candidate Joe Biden winning the presidential race by roughly eight points. According to Morning Consult, Biden will take 51.9 percent of the votes, while President Donald Trump manages 43.9 percent. The pollsters estimate there is a one percent margin of error.
Morning Consult also released its final polls for 14 battleground states. These states include Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas and Wisconsin. Collectively, the states add up to 222 Electoral College votes.
Of the total battleground states, Morning Consult shows Biden winning in nine of the states. Compared to 2016, Biden is shown to flip eight of the states that Trump won in the previous presidential election. Trump is predicted to win four of the battleground states, all of which he won in 2016.
According to the poll, Biden will win Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump won all of these states, except for Colorado and Minnesota in 2016.
The poll shows Biden winning Arizona with 48.4 percent and Trump with 46.1 percent, while Biden has a 13-point margin in Colorado, winning 53.8 percent to Trump’s 40.9 percent. The Arizona poll has a 3 percent margin of error and the Colorado poll has a 4 percent margin of error.
In Florida, Biden is expected to take 51.5 percent and Trump to take 45.4 percent with a 2 percent margin of error. Biden is also expected to take Michigan and Minnesota by more than 50 percent, winning 51.8 percent and 51.7 percent, respectively. Trump is shown to win 44.5 percent in Michigan and 42.4 percent in Minnesota.
Biden is also predicted to flip Pennsylvania, a longtime key Democratic state that Trump flipped in 2016. This poll shows Biden winning by a nine-point margin, taking 51.9 percent of the state’s vote to Trump’s 43.2 percent with a two percent margin of error.
Red state Georgia is predicted to hand Biden a narrow two-point victory, with Biden winning 48.8 percent to Trump’s 46.4 percent. This poll has a two percent margin of error. Biden currently has a one-point margin in North Carolina, with 49.1 percent of the vote to 48.4 percent for Trump.
Wisconsin has the biggest victory margin for Biden: a full 13 points. He is expected to take 53.8 percent of the vote to Trump’s 40.5 percent. This estimate has a three percent margin of error.
In a sign that the state is slowly turning purple, Texas is currently predicted to be a tie between Biden and Trump. Morning Consult has polled both candidates at 48.1 percent with a two percent margin of error.
The battleground states where Trump is expected to win are Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, and South Carolina. Trump is expected to win Indiana by an 11-point margin, taking 53.4 percent of the state’s vote while Biden only gets 42 percent. Missouri is also likely to hand Trump a sizable margin, with estimates that Trump will get 52.3 percent of the vote to Biden’s 42.9 percent.
South Carolina is currently polling at 51.1 percent for Trump and 44.5 percent for Biden. Ohio is also expected to be a Trump victory, but only at a three-point margin with 49.2 percent for Trump and 46.6 percent for Biden.
Based on the Morning Consult poll results, Biden will receive 136 Electoral College votes if he wins these nine states, while Trump will receive 48 if he wins the four states. To win the election, Biden would require an additional 134 at minimum, and Trump would require a minimum of 222 votes to win.
In the 2016 election, Trump received 306 Electoral College votes compared to Hillary Clinton’s 232 votes. To clinch a victory, a candidate must receive at least 270 votes. However, Clinton received a greater share of the popular vote with 65,853,625 votes or 48 percent, with Trump receiving 62,985,106, or 45.9 percent, according to the New York Times.
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